Reliance Industries Touches ₹1,611.80; ONGC Climbs on Hopes of Recovering $500 Million Dues from Venezuelan Assets
Indian oil and energy stocks surged on Monday, January 5, 2026, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of American forces capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and signaling a potential takeover of the country’s vast oil reserves. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) hit a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,611.80, gaining over 1%, while ONGC jumped up to 2% to ₹246.80. Other oil-linked stocks like Hindustan Petroleum (up 1.85%), Indian Oil (up 1.03%), and Oil India (up 0.47%) also rose, reflecting optimism over cheaper crude imports and recovery of stuck funds.
The Rally Drivers: Venezuela Exposure and Discounted Crude
Trump’s statement that US oil companies would invest billions to revive Venezuela’s production currently at just 1% of potential sparked speculation of lifted sanctions and increased global supply. Analysts at Jefferies highlighted benefits for Indian firms:
- Reliance Industries: Could source heavy Venezuelan crude at $5-8 per barrel discount to Brent, boosting refining margins for its massive Jamnagar complex.
- ONGC: Potential recovery of ~$500 million in unpaid dividends from its San Cristobal field stake via ONGC Videsh.
Global crude prices remained flat amid surplus concerns, but the prospect of Venezuelan output revival fueled sentiment. RIL’s market cap neared ₹22 lakh crore, cementing its position as India’s most valuable company.
Stock Performance Snapshot
| Stock | Intraday High (₹) | Gain (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | 1,611.80 | +1.2 |
| ONGC | 246.80 | +1.16 |
| Hindustan Petroleum | 508.45 | +1.85 |
| Indian Oil | 168.79 | +1.03 |
| Oil India | 432.45 | +0.47 |
Broader indices were muted, with Sensex flat and Nifty marginally up, underscoring sector-specific excitement.
Analyst Views: Upside Potential with Risks
Jefferies maintained ‘Buy’ on ONGC (target ₹310, +28% upside), citing dividend recovery as a catalyst. For RIL, discounted crude could enhance GRMs significantly. However, risks include delayed sanction lifts or geopolitical backlash affecting global prices.
Market experts note India’s minimal direct imports from Venezuela currently, but revived flows could lower overall crude costs, benefiting refiners like RIL and BPCL.
Broader Implications
The developments revive focus on India’s energy security and diversification. With Russia as top supplier (~40%), cheaper Venezuelan heavy crude suits Indian refineries configured for sour grades. Long-term, it could pressure OPEC+ dynamics and ease inflation via lower fuel costs.
Conclusion
Trump’s Venezuela move has ignited a rally in Indian oil stocks, led by RIL’s record high and ONGC’s gains on dues recovery hopes. While near-term volatility persists, discounted supply could deliver margin boosts and economic relief. Investors eye sustained momentum, but geopolitical risks loom. For now, energy plays shine amid global uncertainty.
